Go alpha or aesthetics?

I have been playing Vanilla for a while (just got BtS) and a surefire strategy is pick up all worker techs then go alphabet. Works great every time. Now I am seeing/hearing lots of people go for aesthetics first in BtS. So I started doing that and it usually works... but then I had this one game (emperor, normal pangea map) where I went aesthetics and just waited... and waited... and waited until 250 BC before someone had alphabet!!! And it was ragnar who got it and he wouldn't trade with me anyway. After that, I am way way in favor of just going alpha first thing, much less risky. Thoughts?

Thank you civ geniuses.